Air Force

Conference:	MWC
Expected RPI:	253.0
Current RPI:	253
Expected SOS:	157
Current SOS:	157
Current Record:	10-19
Expected Record:	10-19
Current Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Conf Record:	6-13
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-9
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-3
Current OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC Record:	4-6
Expected OOC RPI:	285
Expected OOC SOS:	310

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-19	253.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Air Force.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-12	Texas St. (243.0)	SB	H	65-57	W	100%
11-14	Canisius (124.0)	MAAC	H	93-79	W	100%
11-20	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	57-47	W	100%
11-21	Pacific (190.0)	WCC	H	71-83	L	0%
11-26	Colorado (82.0)	P12	A	81-69	L	0%
11-29	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	74-64	L	0%
12-2	Denver (224.0)	Sum	A	59-61	W	100%
12-6	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	58-62	L	0%
12-8	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	67-48	L	0%
12-17	Army (280.0)	Pat	N	79-54	L	0%
12-27	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	A	87-58	L	0%
12-30	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	A	71-59	L	0%
1-6	Nevada (17.0)	MWC	H	75-86	L	0%
1-10	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	H	76-81	L	0%
1-13	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	A	71-78	W	100%
1-17	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	A	71-76	W	100%
1-24	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	A	71-49	L	0%
1-27	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	H	64-70	L	0%
2-3	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	A	81-50	L	0%
2-6	Colorado St. (234.0)	MWC	H	78-73	W	100%
2-10	New Mexico (118.0)	MWC	H	100-92	W	100%
2-14	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	81-73	L	0%
2-17	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	76-52	L	0%
2-21	San Diego St. (62.0)	MWC	H	56-67	L	0%
2-24	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	75-65	W	100%
2-26	Fresno St. (103.0)	MWC	H	48-54	L	0%
2-28	Wyoming (98.0)	MWC	A	66-54	L	0%
3-3	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	83-61	W	100%
3-7	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	97-90	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Air Force's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Air Force's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Air Force.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Air Force	MWC	26.35	26.35	32.56	32.56	-9.19	-9.19
UNLV	MWC	6.03	6.03	56.67	56.67	0.80	0.80
New Mexico	MWC	4.47	4.47	54.84	54.84	0.43	0.43
Utah St.	MWC	4.44	4.44	48.39	48.39	-0.14	-0.14
San Diego St.	MWC	4.41	4.41	65.52	65.52	1.37	1.37
Colorado St.	MWC	4.35	4.35	34.48	34.48	-1.35	-1.35
Fresno St.	MWC	4.34	4.34	60.71	60.71	0.93	0.93
San Jose St.	MWC	4.31	4.31	11.11	11.11	-3.36	-3.36
Boise St.	MWC	4.31	4.31	71.43	71.43	1.85	1.85
Nevada	MWC	2.82	2.82	78.79	78.79	1.63	1.63
Wyoming	MWC	2.80	2.80	58.06	58.06	0.45	0.45
Pacific	WCC	1.96	1.96	40.00	40.00	-0.39	-0.39
Texas St.	SB	1.89	1.89	43.33	43.33	-0.25	-0.25
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	1.86	1.86	41.18	41.18	-0.33	-0.33
Colorado	P12	1.86	1.86	51.61	51.61	0.06	0.06
Denver	Sum	1.84	1.84	48.15	48.15	-0.07	-0.07
Canisius	MAAC	1.80	1.80	67.74	67.74	0.64	0.64
Abilene Christian	Slnd	1.75	1.75	42.31	42.31	-0.27	-0.27
UC Riverside	BW	1.75	1.75	21.43	21.43	-1.00	-1.00
Army	Pat	1.72	1.72	39.29	39.29	-0.37	-0.37
Indiana St.	MVC	1.72	1.72	35.71	35.71	-0.49	-0.49
Arizona	P12	0.21	0.21	79.41	79.41	0.12	0.12
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.20	0.20	12.50	12.50	-0.15	-0.15
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.20	0.20	64.71	64.71	0.06	0.06
Evansville	MVC	0.20	0.20	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.20	0.20	36.67	36.67	-0.05	-0.05
Utah	P12	0.18	0.18	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.18	0.18	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.17	0.17	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
Illinois St.	MVC	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.17	0.17	28.57	28.57	-0.07	-0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.17	0.17	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.17	0.17	16.67	16.67	-0.11	-0.11
UC Irvine	BW	0.17	0.17	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.17	0.17	34.48	34.48	-0.05	-0.05
Arizona St.	P12	0.16	0.16	64.52	64.52	0.05	0.05
Gonzaga	WCC	0.16	0.16	88.24	88.24	0.13	0.13
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.16	0.16	83.33	83.33	0.11	0.11
Rice	CUSA	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
South Dakota	Sum	0.15	0.15	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.14	0.14	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Valparaiso	MVC	0.14	0.14	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Montana St.	BSky	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.14	0.14	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.13	0.13	60.71	60.71	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.12	0.12	14.29	14.29	-0.08	-0.08
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.12	0.12	84.38	84.38	0.08	0.08
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.12	0.12	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Bradley	MVC	0.12	0.12	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Missouri St.	MVC	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.12	0.12	84.85	84.85	0.08	0.08
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Drake	MVC	0.11	0.11	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.11	0.11	19.35	19.35	-0.07	-0.07
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
California	P12	0.11	0.11	25.81	25.81	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.11	0.11	80.65	80.65	0.07	0.07
UTEP	CUSA	0.11	0.11	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.11	0.11	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.11	0.11	36.36	36.36	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.10	0.10	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.09	0.09	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Navy	Pat	0.09	0.09	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Loyola MD	Pat	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	32.00	32.00	-0.03	-0.03
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	8.00	8.00	-0.07	-0.07
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Stanford	P12	0.09	0.09	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Niagara	MAAC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Oregon St.	P12	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.08	0.08	24.24	24.24	-0.04	-0.04
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
TCU	B12	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Southern	SWAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.05	-0.05
Lipscomb	ASun	0.06	0.06	68.97	68.97	0.02	0.02
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.06	0.06	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Arkansas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
American	Pat	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	Pat	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Bucknell	Pat	0.06	0.06	73.53	73.53	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Lehigh	Pat	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Florida St.	ACC	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.06	0.06	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Georgia St.	SB	0.06	0.06	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Tulane	Amer	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
UT Arlington	SB	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Monmouth	MAAC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Rider	MAAC	0.05	0.05	70.97	70.97	0.02	0.02
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.05	0.05	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Cincinnati	Amer	0.05	0.05	88.24	88.24	0.04	0.04
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.05	0.05	9.68	9.68	-0.04	-0.04
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.02	-0.02
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Columbia	Ivy	0.03	0.03	26.92	26.92	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio	MAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.03	0.03	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
UTSA	CUSA	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.03	0.03	75.76	75.76	0.01	0.01
Chattanooga	SC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Fairfield	MAAC	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Davidson	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Idaho	BSky	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.02	0.02	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01